How accurate the estimates are

Every estimate PennAhead shows is checked against the track NJ TRANSIT announces. These numbers come straight from that log, from September 30, 2026 to October 1, 2026: 233 departures with an announced track over 2 days. Nothing here is hand-typed.

PennAhead opened on October 1, 2026, so these numbers cover only 2 days so far. They'll firm up as more departures are checked.

Headline
90%+ estimates

When the board showed a track at 90%+, it was right 188 of 188 times (100%). 188 of 233 departures (81%) had a 90%+ estimate before the track was announced.

Over time
Right track, by day

All estimates on the board, by service day.

Over time
Right platform, by day

Estimates whose track or its island partner (Tracks 1–2, 3–4, …) was the one announced, by service day.

Coverage
How often there is an estimate

233 of 233 departures (100%) had an estimate on the board before NJ TRANSIT announced the track.

By confidence
Right track, by what the board showed

• 90%+right 188 of 188 (100%)
• HIGH (75–89%)right 2 of 2 (100%) · small sample
• MED (60–74%)right 1 of 2 (50%) · small sample
• LOW (under 60%)right 14 of 41 (34%)
• All estimatesright 205 of 233 (88%)

Right platform: 209 of 233 (90%). Tracks that share an island platform count as one, so an estimate of Track 7 when the train left from Track 8 still sent you to the right stairs.

Lead time
How early a 90%+ estimate appeared

For correct 90%+ estimates, the board first showed that track a median of 15 minutes before NJ TRANSIT announced it, and 24 minutes before the scheduled departure (188 departures).

By method
Where the estimate came from

• Train already on a platformright 161 of 161 (100%)
• Past track patternsright 15 of 43 (35%)
• Train on the approach to a platformright 29 of 29 (100%) · small sample

By line
Right track, by line

• NECright 78 of 89 (88%)
• M&Eright 46 of 53 (87%)
• NJCLright 39 of 46 (85%)
• MOBOright 29 of 32 (91%)
• RARVright 13 of 13 (100%) · small sample

Misses
Recent wrong estimates

Of 28 wrong estimates, 4 still pointed to the right platform (14%): the train left from the other track on the same island, so the same stairs.

• #3841 NEC, Oct 1 12:01 PM
  Estimated Track 8 (22%), left from Track 4
  Wrong platform
• #6227 MOBO, Oct 1 9:09 AM
  Estimated Track 2 (35%), left from Track 9
  Wrong platform
• #6613 M&E, Oct 1 8:02 AM
  Estimated Track 1 (54%), left from Track 2
  Right platform (Tracks 1–2)
• #3223 NJCL, Oct 1 7:44 AM
  Estimated Track 13 (28%), left from Track 9
  Wrong platform
• #6213 MOBO, Oct 1 6:50 AM
  Estimated Track 3 (41%), left from Track 14
  Wrong platform
• #6307 M&E, Oct 1 6:42 AM
  Estimated Track 7 (64%), left from Track 9
  Wrong platform
• #3705 NEC, Oct 1 6:26 AM
  Estimated Track 10 (24%), left from Track 6
  Wrong platform
• #3209 NJCL, Oct 1 4:28 AM
  Estimated Track 9 (27%), left from Track 13
  Wrong platform
• #3805 NEC, Oct 1 1:22 AM
  Estimated Track 9 (27%), left from Track 4
  Wrong platform
• #6603 M&E, Oct 1 12:56 AM
  Estimated Track 9 (31%), left from Track 7
  Wrong platform
• #3801 NEC, Oct 1 12:14 AM
  Estimated Track 10 (30%), left from Track 2
  Wrong platform
• #6601 M&E, Oct 1 12:02 AM
  Estimated Track 4 (24%), left from Track 11
  Wrong platform
• #3965 NEC, Sep 30 7:42 PM
  Estimated Track 2 (20%), left from Track 9
  Wrong platform
• #3961 NEC, Sep 30 6:37 PM
  Estimated Track 4 (22%), left from Track 6
  Wrong platform
• #3871 NEC, Sep 30 5:50 PM
  Estimated Track 13 (24%), left from Track 15
  Wrong platform

Improving
Where the estimates need to get better

The weak spot is plain to see in these numbers. When the train is already on or near its platform, the estimate is almost always right. When PennAhead has only past track patterns to go on, it's right far less often, and those are the estimates that need the most work.

PennAhead collects this data every day: every estimate it shows, where trains were before their tracks were posted, and the track NJ TRANSIT finally announced. The results are checked daily, and every change to how estimates are made is measured against this record and kept only if it helps. This page updates as that work lands.

How it's measured
What counts

For each NJ TRANSIT departure, the estimate counted is the last one on the board before the track was announced, and it's right if it matches the announced track. Canceled trains are left out. The board shows estimates of 90% or more as 90%+; the results on this page are exact. NJ TRANSIT can change a track at any time, so always check the station displays.